endstream endobj 160 0 obj <>/Metadata 41 0 R/Pages 157 0 R/StructTreeRoot 59 0 R/Type/Catalog/ViewerPreferences 177 0 R>> endobj 161 0 obj <>/MediaBox[0 0 792 612]/Parent 157 0 R/Resources<>/Font<>/ProcSet[/PDF/Text/ImageB/ImageC/ImageI]/XObject<>>>/Rotate 0/StructParents 0/Tabs/S/Type/Page>> endobj 162 0 obj <>stream But the 30-year period is the standard reference worldwide and captures more variability, according to Paul Miller of the Colorado Basin River Forecast Center. The peak inflow to Lake Powell occurs in mid- to late spring, as the winter snow in the Rocky Mountains melts. As of September 20, 2021, the water elevation at Glen Canyon Dam was 3,546.93 feet, more than 153 feet below "full pool" (elevation 3,700 feet). Under the current most probable forecast, the total water year 2023 unregulated inflow to Lake Powell is projected to be 10.44 maf (109 percent of average). There are continued discussions when and how that same amount of water (0.523 maf) will be . Lukas noted that the dry soil conditions are factored into the NOAA runoff predictions from the get-go so there shouldnt necessarily be any big surprises with that particular variable. In the image acquired on May 1, 2004, the reservoirs northwestern branch is isolated from the main reservoir; the shallow water upstream could not crest raised areas in the lakebed. Lake Powell Water Supply Outlook, February 1, 2022 Note: This publication is scheduled for revision. The forecast is changing daily and there are still a lot of variables, said Lisa Meiman, a spokeswoman for WAPA. The water level in Lake Powell was at a record low when rain and snow began to fall across the Colorado River Basin in October, soaking dry soils ahead of the winter season. Even Less water forecast to flow into Lake Powell this year, report says May NOAA runoff report predicts even less water will flow into Lake Powell this year than previously forecasted. WEco is funded by multiple donors. It can store about five times the average annual flow. On April 8, Reclamation announced it would likely keep more water in Lake Powell, reducing releases from the planned 7.5 million acre-feet to 7 million acre-feet, a move that could trigger emergency water cutbacks in Arizona, California and Nevada. google_color_link = "0000FF"; Updated: 10:18 PM MDT April 26, 2022 DENVER Lake Powell, on the Utah-Arizona state line, is part of a river system that supplies water to 40 million people. To view the current inflow forecast relative to past inflows, click on Lake Powell Inflow Forecast. Much of that water. This 2022 Plan is described above and available for review here: https://www.usbr.gov/dcp/droa.html. Projections of end of water year 2023 elevation using the February minimum and January maximum inflow forecast results are 3,544.04 feet and 3,582.24 feet, respectively. The grim forecast comes as water officials race to bolster Lake Powells water levels. 2018 brought some relief after a wet winter. Precipitation was better, but still slightly below normal in the Upper Colorado River Basin. Drop us a note at tips@coloradosun.com. In July 2022, the lake reached a historic low of 1,040 feet above sea level. The declines were first apparent in the side canyons feeding the reservoir which thinned and then shortened. Significant amounts of snowfall over the winter of 20102011 meant more water for Lake Powell, and this effect lasted into the spring of 2012. %PDF-1.7 % Click for Details, Current Snowpack Conditions for Upper Colorado Basin. Colorado River Basin Water Management: Evaluating and Adjusting to Hydroclimatic Variability. New 1991-2020 Averages being used this year. In addition to the February 2023 24-Month Study based on the Most Probable inflow scenario, and in accordance with the Drought Response Operational Agreement (DROA)), Reclamation has conducted model runs in February to determine a possible range of reservoir elevations. A Colorado River flows drop and tensions rise, water interests struggle Can the Ancient Humpback Chub Hang On in Todays Grand Canyon? The actual end of water year 2023 system storage may vary from this projection, primarily due to uncertainty regarding this seasons runoff and reservoir inflow. google_color_url = "426C95"; Upper Colorado Region Water Operations: Current Status: Lake Powell, Spring Snow Brings Moisture to Colorado Front Range, NASA Goddard Space SW Satellite Weather Its not a hypothetical situation anymore.. We maintain a strict editorial firewall between our funders and our journalism. From there, a swing to the northeast delivers boats into Lake Powell's main artery. google_color_url = "426C95"; Forecasts are calling for 4.1 million acre-feet of water to flow into Lake Powell from April to July this year, but water managers are obligated to release more than 7 million acre-feet out of the lake. Powell was last within 2" of this elevation on Feb 11, 2023 There are currently 1,757,155,460,140 gallons of water in Lake Powell! "Its always good to plan for the worst, right? "This is probably the largest reservoir system in the country in terms of storage. Differences between the full period forecasts and the residual forecasts may not exactly equal the actual observed volumes due to rounding conventions (see Definitions section). Lake Mead was at elevation 1,064.30 ft. with storage of 8.753 maf or 34 percent of capacity. Lake Powell Water Level including historical chart. The draft plan is expected to be released next week, according to Becki Bryant, a spokeswoman for Reclamations Upper Colorado River Region. So, it takes awhile to fill and it takes awhile to empty.". The end of January elevation and storage of Lake Powell were 3,523.45 feet (177 feet from full pool) and 5.45 million acre-feet (maf) (23 percent of live capacity), respectively. She grew up in Tucson, Arizona, where she fell in love with the ecology and geology of the Sonoran desert. monthly forecasts become more accurate. Last week, the Bureau of Reclamation announced extraordinary action to keep the water level at Powell from dropping too low, which could threaten hydropower production at Powells Glen Canyon Dam. The basin states, in a response letter, expressed concern that the water level of Lake Powell would decline below critical elevations, making the dam inoperable. The unregulated inflow volume to Lake Powell during January was 361 thousand acre-feet (kaf) (107 percent of average). Upper Colorado River Basin regularly experiences significant year to year hydrologic variability. Lund said he expects water use in the basin to have "capped out," but the reservoir can't continue to supply water at the pace in which the area consumes it. Glen Canyon Dam currently maintains 30 mw (approximately 800 cfs) of generation capacity in reserve in order to respond to a system emergency even when generation rates are already high. Surface Water Elevation (feet) Lake Powell End of Month Elevations1 . The plan can be found at the following website: https://www.usbr.gov/dcp/droa.html. The deep, narrow, meandering reservoir extends upstream into southern Utah. The Colorado River flows in from the east around Mille Crag Bend and is swallowed by the lake. GCC is the official nonprofit partner of Glen Canyon National Recreation Area & Rainbow Bridge National Monument. The Upper Basin reservoirs have already provided 161,000 acre-feet of water pursuant to the imminent need provision of the Drought Response Operations Agreement, including 36,000 acre-feet from Blue Mesa Reservoir in Colorado. Since the beginning of water year 2000, total Colorado Basin storage has experienced year to year increases and decreases in response to wet and dry hydrology, ranging from a high of 94 percent of capacity at the beginning of 2000 to the now current level of 33 percent of capacity at the beginning of water year 2023. //2006-10-04: news Antelope Point Launch Ramp Bullfrog Main Launch Ramp average basin temperatures and precipitation for the forecast period. An initiative of the Center for Environmental Journalism at the University of Colorado Boulder. Few expected to ever see this drop in hydropower production, let alone consider what to do if Glen Canyon were to cease electricity production entirely. " 9`SADP zg Ab``#@ 7 3 Lake Powell water level at Wahweap Marina in September 2021 | Photo by Bureau of Reclamation, St. George News . The reduction of releases from Lake Powell from 7.48 maf to 7.00 maf in water year 2022 resulted in a reduced release volume of 0.480 maf that normally would have been released from Glen Canyon Dam to Lake Mead as part of the 7.48 maf annual release volume, consistent with operations under the 2007 Interim Guidelines. Chris Outcalt covers Western water issues for The Colorado Sun. Hydrologists recently updated the model that forecasts the level of Lake Powell. Note that projections of elevation and storage for water year 2023 have significant uncertainty at this point in the season. The lake is set to reach. "We might get lucky with the weather, but the idea of the system recovering is really hard unless you reduce water use in that basin," Lund told Newsweek. The Glen Canyon Dam annual release has initially been set to 7.00 maf, and in April 2023 Reclamation will evaluate hydrologic conditions to determine if balancing releases may be appropriate under the conditions established in the 2007 Interim Guidelines; Balancing releases will be limited (with a minimum of 7.00 maf) to protect Lake Powell from declining below elevation 3,525 feet at the end of December 2023; Balancing releases will take into account operational neutrality of the 0.480 maf that was retained in Lake Powell under the. Becky Mitchell is director of the Colorado Water Conservation Board, the states lead water planning agency. The most probable inflow scenario reflects a median hydrologic condition which statistically would be exceeded 50 percent of the time. Even in low emission climate scenarios (forecasts that are based on the assumption that future carbon dioxide emissions will increase relatively slowly), models predict precipitation may decline by 20-25 percent over most of California, southern Nevada, and Arizona by the end of this century. 15 Day Weather Forecast SW Satellite Weather SW Water Vapor Lake Powell is down 6.18 feet from one year ago. Last Reading: 3522.33 on Feb 12, 2023. But the region is battling a multidecade drought with rain harder to come by. Lake Powell has fallen victim to excessive water use as a 20-year drought parches the region. %%EOF google_color_bg = "FFFFFF"; Lake Powell was at 26% of capacity, 168 feet below its full elevation of 3,700 feet above sea level at . Credit: Alex Hager. and last updated 5:24 PM, Sep 24, 2021. The Bureau of Reclamation announced on May 3, 2022, two separate urgent drought response actions that will help prop up Lake Powell by nearly 1 million acre-feet (maf) of water over the next 12 months (May 2022 through April 2023). Lake Powell has several launch ramps along its 186-mile length. Her work has appeared nationally on NPR and been featured on Science Friday. There is a 10 percent chance that inflows could be higher than the current maximum probable forecast and a 10 percent chance that inflows could be lower than the minimum probable forecast. Water levels in Lake Powell dropped to a new record low on Tuesday. Among the dams on the Colorado is Arizona's Glen Canyon Dam, which creates Lake Powell. This was the lowest water levels have been since the lake was first constructed in the 1930s. Click below for water level and accessibity updates about the launch ramps and services near you. Though the 2022 forecast isnt expected to be finalized until later this month, water officials expect that more water will have to be released from Upper Basin storage reservoirs this summer because inflows into the lake from the drought-stressed Colorado River are expected to be well below average again, in the 60% to 80% range. The May report, released last week, is the final runoff prediction for the season. google_color_border = "FFFFFF"; Utahs Flaming Gorge, Colorados Blue Mesa and New Mexicos Navajo. A 59% flow into Powell translates to about 3.8 million acre-feet. He said the soil moisture conditions were still well below normal across western Colorado, particularly in the southwest part of the state. The Water Desk launched in April 2019 with support from the Walton Family Foundation. hb```)," Correction: This article has been corrected to indicate that Lake Powell began filling 59 years ago, not 60 years, as the original article stated. Lake Powell is now at a historic low. For additional information, see the following news release: https://www.usbr.gov/newsroom/#/news-release/4196. water-data.com LakePowell Water Database . Lake Powells side branches had all retreated compared to the previous years extents. Part of the Glen Canyon Conservancy Family, Utah D.O.T Charles Hall Ferry for UT Route 276. hVmO0+_'"Bi?H!R`Mkwj3#tq@x k8,Q\yDIU>H A powerful winter storm will enter AZ early Tuesday night with rain and snow showers increasing across the region after midnight. (2019-2021) AND my own personal prediction of 2022 based on p. google_ad_height = 600; The final NOAA forecast for the season predicts the amount of water to reach Lake Powell this year to be about 60% of average. The modeling approach for WY 2023 will apply to 2024. But the declining water already has drained some of the fun, he said. In order to restore Lake Powell's levels, one expert said people must conserve water in the Colorado River's lower basin. We need to get ourselves prepared," he says. We are 37% through the Water Year. The bureau, in consultation with tribal nations and the seven Colorado River Basin states, decided to keep nearly 500,000 acre-feet of water in Lake Powell that had originally been planned to be released to the Lower Basin states of Nevada, Arizona and California this year. (At normal water levels, both rivers are essentially part of the reservoir.) The release volume from Glen Canyon Dam in January was 500 kaf. As a news piece, this article cites verifiable, third-party sources which have all been thoroughly fact-checked and deemed credible by the Newsroom in accordance with the Civil Constitution. Lake Powell